economic growth

Introduction. Currently, the study of the role of financial intermediation as an important auxiliary mechanism of economic growth has received considerable attention in the theoretical and empirical literature. The problems of economic and mathematical modeling of causal relationships between the rates of economic growth and the dynamics of the financial system development attract the attention of a large number of both foreign and Russian specialists. Most authors believe that not only depth growth, but also a change in the financial sector structure (the ratios between its various segments) can have an impact on economic growth. A quantitative assessment of the impact of the financial market’s type of structure (bank-oriented or based on the securities market) on economic growth is of practical interest. The aim of the work is an econometric study of the influence of the ratio of bank credit volume and the issuance of securities on the rate of economic growth in Russia. The observation period is from Q1 2003 to Q4 2017. Theoretical analysis. In Russia, a bank loan has penetrated into the economy much deeper than the securities market, which lags far behind in terms of depth and efficiency from the world average. The indicators characterizing the structure of the financial market are the volume of bank lending (with the allocation of loans to individuals and organizations) and the total market capitalization of shares traded on the Moscow Stock Exchange. The paper uses an econometric methodology for studying the statistical relationship between non-stationary time series, including tests for the Ingle-Granger cointegration, the study of causality and the response to shocks based on the vector-based error correction model (VECM). Empirical analysis. A comparison of time series of quarterly values of financial structure indicators, as well as Russia’s GDP for 2003–2017 is carried out. The article presents a statistical comparison of the level of development of the Russian stock market relative to the markets of developed and developing countries. The modern econometric Gretl package was used for calculations and modeling. Results. The cointegration of non-stationary time series has been established: gross domestic product, total capitalization of the Moscow Exchange, and bank lending to individuals and legal entities. The Ingle-Granger test found a cointegrating relation that confirms the long-term equilibrium relationship between variables and the authenticity of their correlation. It is shown that economic growth largely depends on the development of a bank credit and to a lesser extent on the growth of the market capitalization of shares. It is shown that in terms of contribution to economic growth, loans to organizations are more than twice as large as loans to individuals. Decomposition of the variance of forecast errors in the medium term revealed the influence of loans to organizations on the dispersion of economic growth and bank credit.

Introduction. In the context of globalization, the competitiveness of the national economy is largely determined by the dynamics of the development of regional innovation and educational systems and the effectiveness of interaction among their subjects, among which regional higher education systems are becoming a significant driver of innovative growth. The purpose of the study is to develop methods for quantifying the effectiveness of the functioning and implementation of basic functions by regional higher education systems on the basis of a functional approach. Theoretical analysis. The sustainable and competitive development of the region’s economy in response to modern global challenges is largely determined by the quality of the workforce and the regional education system. Empirical analysis. Based on the analysis of the basic functions of universities, the results of the activity of the regional educational systems of 830 universities from 80 regions of the Russian Federation for 2016 were analyzed, the indicators characterizing the functioning of regional higher education systems were grouped into 3 groups according to the number of basic functions to trace the manifestations of each function. Results. The conducted research allowed to evaluate the functional dynamics, structure and volume indicators characterizing the quality of the implementation of the basic functions of regional higher education systems. Comparison of the results obtained by regions of the Russian Federation allows us to draw conclusions about the balance of regional systems of higher education.

Introduction. Solving problems of technological development of Russia is an important task of formation of an innovative economy. In recent years there has been an intensification of mining operations and sales abroad, which can lead to rapid depletion of resources and the deterioration of the country in the future, but with competent macroeconomic policies, availability of raw materials and export of raw materials can be a major competitive advantage for the country. Theoretical analysis. The article analyzes the innovation of economic growth in terms of increase in production of natural resources, held in the framework of the Solow model, as well as evaluation and justification of the factors that negatively affect the economy. In the developed economic and mathematical model of growth based on the modification of the Solow model with constant saving rate. Discussion of results. In the simulations of the dynamics of technological development and analysis of the effect of the economy falling into the trap of underdevelopment in the lagging economy from the world’s technological leaders. It is proved that exogenous high prices for the resource at low technological level, capacity development and the level of education can lead to greater economic dependence on raw materials factor. With the help of mathematical modeling proved that at consistently high prices, the country will lose its potential for development and the economy will dominate the raw material component, further in the case of a fall in prices for the resource, the majority of investments in the economy again goes into the manufacturing sector, which, however, will have the potential for development insufficient to eliminate the backlog of the economy, may reduce the level of education in the case of inconsistency, which makes the output of the economy at world level impossible.

Introduction. The effectiveness of management activities and the successful achievement of the major objectives of social and economic development are highly dependent on competent analysis and evaluation, planning future actions. Methodology. The complex target indicators, the use of which is essential in the formation of social and economic development, formed as a result of scientific work. The complex includes: the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment, inflation, volume of net exports in GDP, the share of investment in fixed assets in GDP, the effectiveness of cost in technological innovation. Comprehensive assessment and correlation analysis of information on these indicators performed. Theoretical analysis. The need for the proposed system of indicators that serve as important indicators of the state and economic development is founded. The concept of «target indicators» suggested that it had not been formulated in economics. Model target indicators, allowing to define the dynamics of the extensive and intensive economic growth and the impact on the level of automation has to offer. Methods of calculating indicators for the proposed model is formed and calculations are presented. Conclusion. The results of the present work allow multifactorial determine the relationship and interdependence of the main macroeconomic indicators of economic development, to carry out their forecasts further values. It is possible to trace the main development trends of the economy of the presented model.