экономический рост

In modern conditions of the economy one of the most promising ways of increasing the efficiency of the economic system is the creation of innovative socio-economic structures. Institutional forms of the organization of such structures are national research universities. Theoretical analysis. The article discusses the process of transforming traditional universities in national research universities. This is, firstly, a consequence of disequilibrium and instability of the modern world, and secondly, the result of constant change and chaos in the natural, social, economic and other systems, and thirdly, the orientation of the new economy on knowledge and innovation. The paper investigates the change of roles of universities: from traditional (educational and scientific activities) to the new (commercialization of research results), as well as the changing role of universities in economic development. Discussion of results. On the example of the restructuring of the regional university to a national research university revealed the fundamental position of the regional university in the community, making it a key element in the future of innovation, creating new jobs, sustainable development and economic growth of the region as a whole.

Introduction. Currently, the study of the role of financial intermediation as an important auxiliary mechanism of economic growth has received considerable attention in the theoretical and empirical literature. The problems of economic and mathematical modeling of causal relationships between the rates of economic growth and the dynamics of the financial system development attract the attention of a large number of both foreign and Russian specialists. Most authors believe that not only depth growth, but also a change in the financial sector structure (the ratios between its various segments) can have an impact on economic growth. A quantitative assessment of the impact of the financial market’s type of structure (bank-oriented or based on the securities market) on economic growth is of practical interest. The aim of the work is an econometric study of the influence of the ratio of bank credit volume and the issuance of securities on the rate of economic growth in Russia. The observation period is from Q1 2003 to Q4 2017. Theoretical analysis. In Russia, a bank loan has penetrated into the economy much deeper than the securities market, which lags far behind in terms of depth and efficiency from the world average. The indicators characterizing the structure of the financial market are the volume of bank lending (with the allocation of loans to individuals and organizations) and the total market capitalization of shares traded on the Moscow Stock Exchange. The paper uses an econometric methodology for studying the statistical relationship between non-stationary time series, including tests for the Ingle-Granger cointegration, the study of causality and the response to shocks based on the vector-based error correction model (VECM). Empirical analysis. A comparison of time series of quarterly values of financial structure indicators, as well as Russia’s GDP for 2003–2017 is carried out. The article presents a statistical comparison of the level of development of the Russian stock market relative to the markets of developed and developing countries. The modern econometric Gretl package was used for calculations and modeling. Results. The cointegration of non-stationary time series has been established: gross domestic product, total capitalization of the Moscow Exchange, and bank lending to individuals and legal entities. The Ingle-Granger test found a cointegrating relation that confirms the long-term equilibrium relationship between variables and the authenticity of their correlation. It is shown that economic growth largely depends on the development of a bank credit and to a lesser extent on the growth of the market capitalization of shares. It is shown that in terms of contribution to economic growth, loans to organizations are more than twice as large as loans to individuals. Decomposition of the variance of forecast errors in the medium term revealed the influence of loans to organizations on the dispersion of economic growth and bank credit.

Introduction. At present, the central problem for most countries in the world is to achieve sustainable economic growth rates. Traditionally, the factors of economic growth include labor, natural resources, physical capital, technology. Recently, the level of development of the financial system and, in particular, of the banking sector providing loans to the real sector of the economy with financial resources has been singled out separately. The aim of the work is to econometrically study the impact of bank lending on economic growth, testing on the Russian data of cause-effect relationships and reactions to shocks. The observation period is from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2016 (68 quarter-mean values). Theoretical analysis. A comparative analysis of modern approaches, adopted in foreign and domestic literature, to study the influence of various factors on economic growth. The econometric methodology of the study of the statistical interrelation between nonstationary time series, including Ingle-Granger cointegration tests, causality research and shock responses based on the vector error correction model (VECM) was used in the work. Based on the recommendations of economic theory and analysis of foreign and domestic literature, the following macroeconomic and financial indicators were selected as factors of economic growth: the volume of investments in fixed assets, the unemployment rate and the volume of bank lending. Empirical analysis. Comparison of time series of quarterly values of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the banking sector of Russia for 2000-2016 is carried out. For calculations and modeling, the modern econometric package Gretl was used. Testing for stationarity, determination of the degree of integration (I = 1); tests for coin-tegration (confirmation of the presence of cointegration ratio); Cointeratation analysis, causality testing and shock response analysis using VECM. Results. Based on the Inglane-Granger test, cointegration of the nonstationary time series studied is established: GDP, the volume of bank lending, the volume of investment in fixed assets. A statistically significant dependence of GDP on the indicators of the banking sector and the real economy was found. The existence of the effect of bank lending on GDP has been quantified, but to a lesser extent than the impact of investment in fixed assets and unemployment. A vector model of error correction is constructed and the functions of the impulse response to variable shocks are investigated. The Granger causality test confirmed the interdependence between macroeconomic indicators and the volume of bank lending.

Введение. В современной экономике, когда на первый план по своей актуальности выходят вопросы формирования ее эффективной структуры, обеспечения устойчивого роста и развития, очевидна потребность в критическом разборе моделей эконо- мического роста и всестороннем анализе его факторов. Теоретический анализ. В статье рассматриваются как базовые модели экономического роста, так и новые модели, в которых движущим фактором экономического роста выступают иннова- ции, являющиеся результатом производства такого специфи- ческого сектора современной экономики, как сектор научных исследований и разработок. Обсуждается вопрос взаимосвязи научного, материаль но-вещественного и кадрового потенциалов современной экономики, представляющейся важным фактором ее инновационного развития. Заключение. Отражая сущность общественного производства в динамике, экономический рост на современной фазе развития имеет своим главным фактором инновации, являющиеся продуктом и результатом интеграции интеллектуального и материально-вещественного капитала. Данный факт подтверждается существующими современными моделями экономического роста, устанавливающими функциональную зависимость между ростом производства и научно-техническим прогрессом.