Русский
EnglishPost-Soviet countries
| Econometric Modelling of Influence of Factors on GDP of the Post-Soviet Countries |
Introduction. The processes proceeding in turbulent economy demand continuous monitoring and the analysis, it is possible to refer to those safely formation of gross domestic product in the Post-Soviet countries. A set of external and internal factors exert impact on this formation of this indicator, it is possible to measure this influence perhaps having resorted to econometric methods. Theoretical analysis. As a method of identification and measurement of dependence between variables the correlation and regression analysis is used, also in the course of the research we addressed tabular and graphic methods. Empirical analysis. The carried-out analysis of reaction of GDP on political and socio-economic factors, allows us to draw a number of conclusions: first, it is possible to state coinciding reaction of economy of the considered countries, on the crisis situations caused by political decisions (collapse of the USSR) or economic factors (world crises of 1998 and 2009); secondly, drift of set of factors of the Post-Soviet countries exerting impact on GDP (per capita) is observed; thirdly, the more time passes from the beginning of market reforms, the values of macroeconomic indicators of the countries which entered the European Union differ from other Post-Soviet countries stronger; fourthly, in all four time slices, agriculture makes the constraining impact on economic growth, and the farther from 1991, the influence of such factor as the index of human potential is shown stronger that indirectly indicates preparation for transition to digital economy. Results. Econometric modeling of difficult economic systems, in the conditions of turbulent economy is rather difficult task and it is necessary to approach it with extra care, considering all features of the Post-Soviet countries. In the research we made an attempt to create such econometric models, the received results can serve as a starting point in further researches, and the revealed regularities make a certain contribution to the theory of transitional economies. |
IZVESTIYA OF SARATOV UNIVERSITY. NEW SERIES. SERIES: ECONOMICS. MANAGEMENT. LAW. 2018. vol. 18, iss. 4 |
| The Statistical Analysis of Differentiation of The Post-Soviet Countries During Transformation of Economy |
Introduction. Process of transition of fifteen countries of ex-member of the USSR from planned economy to market, was followed by basic changes in political, economic and social life of society. Various approaches to the undertaken reforms, and opposite strategic objectives, cause the distinctions of economies of the Post-Soviet countries observed now. Theoretical analysis. Works of many domestic scientists are devoted to a problem of the analysis of results of the period of transition of the Post-Soviet countries to market economy, they divide set of the Post-Soviet countries on the basis of various grouping signs, but along with advantages of these researches it is necessary to point to one essential shortcoming contributing a subjectivity share in the received results, it is high-quality approach to formation of groups. It causes need of application of quantitative approach and first of all multidimensional group. Empirical analysis. As a result of application to fifteen Post-Soviet countries of multidimensional group (more precisely than the cluster analysis) it has been established that in entire four reference periods (1991, 1999, 2009, 2015) three groups are allocated, at the same time in the last three periods a ratio and fullness of groups it is identical that points to stabilization of set. The first group had included the countries with impressive natural and human resources, the second the republics which have changed polarity from Russia with the European Union, the USA and China. The third group is formed by the Baltic States which were a part of the European Union and at the expense of it have considerably increased a separation from other Post-Soviet countries that is substantially shown in such indicator as GDP per capita. Conclution. Quarter of the century of development of the Post-Soviet countries out of the Soviet Union was led to their considerable deformation on the level of political and social and economic development. The republics which had good positions on the natural and human capital at the beginning of transition that it has allowed them to be integrated into global economy have achieved considerable progress. The Baltic States which were a part of the European Union and substantially, the improved macroeconomic indicators are also obviously allocated. |
IZVESTIYA OF SARATOV UNIVERSITY. NEW SERIES. SERIES: ECONOMICS. MANAGEMENT. LAW. 2018. vol. 18, iss. 3 |