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| Calculating the amount of tax when using the simplified taxation system: Mathematical and statistical patterns of achieving a socially signifi cant result |
Introduction. The social orientation of legal regulation should be manifested in the process of performing any of the state functions, including the collection of taxes and fees. The balance of the “material interests” of the state and individual members of society when paying a mandatory payment is determined by the dynamics of variable economic indicators used in calculating its size. Within the framework of this work, the distribution of resources of a taxpayer applying a simplified taxation system between his or her employees and the budget (state) is investigated. Theoretical analysis. By means of mathematical constructions based on the normatively defined procedure for calculating the tax, an inversely proportional relationship between the amount of tax and the size of the payroll fund of employees of a taxpayer using a simplified taxation system is established. This effect was revealed regardless of the applied object of taxation. Graphic constructions illustrating the specified dependence are made. Empirical analysis. Based on the data of the Federal State Statistics Service, the correlation between the dynamics of gross domestic product and the dynamics of real accrued wages in the Russian Federation is studied. As a result, it was found that the growth rate of real accrued wages in the study period exceeded the growth rate of GDP. At the same time, however, there is a steady decrease in the difference between these values. Results. The systematic analysis of statistics allowed us to state that in the period under study, the socially oriented nature of the distribution of resources between the taxpayer’s employees and the state remains. However, the “orientation to the interests of the employee” is becoming less and less significant and, if current trends continue, the allocation of resources of a taxpayer using a simplified taxation system will soon be carried out more in the interests of the budget than of an employee. |
Izv. Sarat. Univ. Economics. Management. Law, 2023, vol. 23, iss. 3 |
| Econometric Analysis of the Financial Market Structure’s Influence on the Russian Federation’s Economic Growth |
Introduction. Currently, the study of the role of financial intermediation as an important auxiliary mechanism of economic growth has received considerable attention in the theoretical and empirical literature. The problems of economic and mathematical modeling of causal relationships between the rates of economic growth and the dynamics of the financial system development attract the attention of a large number of both foreign and Russian specialists. Most authors believe that not only depth growth, but also a change in the financial sector structure (the ratios between its various segments) can have an impact on economic growth. A quantitative assessment of the impact of the financial market’s type of structure (bank-oriented or based on the securities market) on economic growth is of practical interest. The aim of the work is an econometric study of the influence of the ratio of bank credit volume and the issuance of securities on the rate of economic growth in Russia. The observation period is from Q1 2003 to Q4 2017. Theoretical analysis. In Russia, a bank loan has penetrated into the economy much deeper than the securities market, which lags far behind in terms of depth and efficiency from the world average. The indicators characterizing the structure of the financial market are the volume of bank lending (with the allocation of loans to individuals and organizations) and the total market capitalization of shares traded on the Moscow Stock Exchange. The paper uses an econometric methodology for studying the statistical relationship between non-stationary time series, including tests for the Ingle-Granger cointegration, the study of causality and the response to shocks based on the vector-based error correction model (VECM). Empirical analysis. A comparison of time series of quarterly values of financial structure indicators, as well as Russia’s GDP for 2003–2017 is carried out. The article presents a statistical comparison of the level of development of the Russian stock market relative to the markets of developed and developing countries. The modern econometric Gretl package was used for calculations and modeling. Results. The cointegration of non-stationary time series has been established: gross domestic product, total capitalization of the Moscow Exchange, and bank lending to individuals and legal entities. The Ingle-Granger test found a cointegrating relation that confirms the long-term equilibrium relationship between variables and the authenticity of their correlation. It is shown that economic growth largely depends on the development of a bank credit and to a lesser extent on the growth of the market capitalization of shares. It is shown that in terms of contribution to economic growth, loans to organizations are more than twice as large as loans to individuals. Decomposition of the variance of forecast errors in the medium term revealed the influence of loans to organizations on the dispersion of economic growth and bank credit. |
Izv. Saratov Univ. (N. S.), Ser. Economics. Management. Law, 2019, vol. 19, iss. 1 |
| Econometric Modelling of Influence of Factors on GDP of the Post-Soviet Countries |
Introduction. The processes proceeding in turbulent economy demand continuous monitoring and the analysis, it is possible to refer to those safely formation of gross domestic product in the Post-Soviet countries. A set of external and internal factors exert impact on this formation of this indicator, it is possible to measure this influence perhaps having resorted to econometric methods. Theoretical analysis. As a method of identification and measurement of dependence between variables the correlation and regression analysis is used, also in the course of the research we addressed tabular and graphic methods. Empirical analysis. The carried-out analysis of reaction of GDP on political and socio-economic factors, allows us to draw a number of conclusions: first, it is possible to state coinciding reaction of economy of the considered countries, on the crisis situations caused by political decisions (collapse of the USSR) or economic factors (world crises of 1998 and 2009); secondly, drift of set of factors of the Post-Soviet countries exerting impact on GDP (per capita) is observed; thirdly, the more time passes from the beginning of market reforms, the values of macroeconomic indicators of the countries which entered the European Union differ from other Post-Soviet countries stronger; fourthly, in all four time slices, agriculture makes the constraining impact on economic growth, and the farther from 1991, the influence of such factor as the index of human potential is shown stronger that indirectly indicates preparation for transition to digital economy. Results. Econometric modeling of difficult economic systems, in the conditions of turbulent economy is rather difficult task and it is necessary to approach it with extra care, considering all features of the Post-Soviet countries. In the research we made an attempt to create such econometric models, the received results can serve as a starting point in further researches, and the revealed regularities make a certain contribution to the theory of transitional economies. |
IZVESTIYA OF SARATOV UNIVERSITY. NEW SERIES. SERIES: ECONOMICS. MANAGEMENT. LAW. 2018. vol. 18, iss. 4 |
| Century of Mobilization Development of the Russian Economy |
Introduction. Researched sustainable secular trend of mobilization development of the Russian economy since the beginning of the First World War in 1914. Theoretical analysis. Outlines the main theoretical and methodological assumptions put forward scientific hypotheses: the mobilization of the economy as a result of government entrepreneurship, limiting the share of consumption and increase the share of savings in the structure of gross product of the country. Dynamics of the statistical indicators of the mobilization of the Russian economy – a share of consumption and accumulating in the national income, a share of consumption and a saving in gross domestic product – on chronologically consecutive historical intervals is analyzed. Results. Consecutive alternation within century of three models of the Russian economy speaks: the military mobilization, investment mobilization and rent-mobilization. It is proved that the trajectory of mobilization development of the economy of Russia/ USSR was caused by its semi-peripheral status in the international division of labor, and the vector of government entrepreneurship was determined by the intention of the ruling power to enter the group of advanced countries. Conclusions. The estimation of rent-mobilization model of the modern economy of Russia as the abnormal condition typical for the peripheral countries is given. |
IZVESTIYA OF SARATOV UNIVERSITY. NEW SERIES. SERIES: ECONOMICS. MANAGEMENT. LAW. 2017. Т. 17, вып. 4 |