риски

Modeling the dynamics of regional competitiveness risks

Introduction. To determine the strategic directions of regional development to increase competitiveness, it is necessary to rely on a systematic analysis of factors and risks, to use modern mathematical modeling tools. To construct dynamic models for assessing the risks of competitiveness, an approach based on the systems of Kolmogorov – Chapman diff erential equations for Markov processes is applied. Theoretical analysis. The article examines the method of applying the logical-probabilistic approach to assessing the risks of regional competitiveness. Empirical analysis. For a comparative assessment of the risks of competitiveness at the stage of preliminary data processing, cluster analysis was applied using a modifi ed k-means method. Based on the hierarchical system of regional competitiveness risks, the system of Kolmogorov – Chapman equations is formed. Dynamic assessment of competitiveness risks was carried out for three basic scenarios. Results. For a selected cluster of 33 Russian regions corresponding to a high level of socio-economic development, predictive estimates of the probabilities of critical events associated with risks of competitiveness were obtained using the example of a separate section. For optimistic, pessimistic and realistic scenarios, numerical assessments of competitiveness risks are obtained for various combinations of critical events. This made it possible to rank the regions by the probability of a decrease in the competitiveness of the regions in the medium term.

Trends in the Development of the Russian Insurance Market

The article examines the trends in the Russian insurance market from 2005 to 2012. The paper presents the characteristics of Russian insurance companies are analyzed following data: the number of insurance organizations, the average number of insurance agents, the number of contracts, reviewed the financial performance of insurance companies from 2005 to 2012. Theoretical analysis. The paper shows that the collected insurance premiums are higher in mandatory insurance than in voluntary insurance. Results. The reason for this situation is the easier collection of insurance premiums in mandatory insurance. The authors identified and explained the reasons for the changes in the insurance market of Russia, during the financial crisis and after the crisis. Conclusions. The authors highlighted the need for modernization of the insurance business, reducing costs, improving attractiveness, quality insurance products, enhancing the competitiveness of the insurance companies. All of this research is the directions of improvements of insurance companies’ activity in the future and it will improve Russia’s practice of ensuring the financial sustainability of the insurance services’ portfolio.

Principles of Levelling of Negative Consequences of Influence of Risks on Efficiency of Projects of Corporate Merges and Absorption

Introduction. Risk management of merges and absorption possibly through impact on the system generating them. It caused need of research of properties of space of corporate integration as a complicated open system for formation of understanding about the nature of these risks, a choice of the effective instrument of management of them for the purpose of stimulation of efficiency of strategic corporate integration. The formulated purpose is achievable at the expense of a scientifically based choice of the instrument of leveling of negative consequences of influence on projects of merges and absorption of various risks. For this purpose, on the basis of research of the system properties of space of corporate integration generating its riskogennost the system of the principles of risk management of merges/absorption is created. Methods. The principles were formed on the basis of application of a method of the design of systems (system approach) focused on the solution of the problems connected with systems taking into account their interrelation and a solidarity of purpose with big (super) systems which they enter. Results. On the basis of application of this method the system of the principles of effective leveling of negative influence of risks in the conditions of occurrence of complicated system of space of corporate integration into big (super) system is created. Conclusions. The substantial description of the formulated principles taking into account system essence of an environment of the corresponding projects confirms about compliance with it the instrument of insurance. Insurance is recognized as the tool allowing to provide minimization of negative influence of risks of implementation of projects of merges and absorption on their result and at the same time to prevent possible deterioration of a condition of the social, economic and political systems connected with these projects.