Management

The author defines the characteristics of public requirements satisfac- tion process in modern conditions of information economy. The factors (managerial risks) preventing the achievement of public purchases process and its result quality on different stages of purchasing cycle are revealed. It is pointed out to the necessity of modern public purchases institutional model optimization on the basis of federal contract system. Тhe article shows the mechanism of public purchases management efficiency rise.

Improving the system of indicators for an objective assessment of spatial heterogeneity of socio- economic development of municipalities is the subject of discussion in this article. It is proposed to use the geoinformational system (GIS) and simple and complex ranking cartograms (thematic maps) as a means assessment of spatial socio-economic and natural resource asymmetry in the region. The implementation of geoinformational approach to the evaluation of intra-regional heterogeneity provide an effective system of diagnosis and prediction of competitiveness, sustainability and security of municipal development in the region.

Introduction. After the crises, lenders realized the importance of assessing the risk of default on loan portfolios in various economic conditions. Modeling of credit risk assessment occurs mainly using internal ratings of banks based on probabilistic models of defaults of borrowers over a certain period of time. Theoretical models. Three models are considered. The fi rst is a naive Markov model with R states. The transition matrix is given. The second is a Markov model with multiple states with covariates. Macroeconomic indicators are proposed as covariates. The third model is multinomial logit regression. Approbation of Markov models and multinomial regression on simulated and real data of borrowers’ defaults. We investigate the possibility of using multi-state Markov models to predict borrower defaults in fi nancial institutions over time. Three approaches are considered for credit risk modeling. The fi rst approach assumes that the transition probability matrix is constant over time, and the residuals of the Markov model and logistic regression are taken into account further when forecasting over the time horizon. The second one is supplemented by the Markov model, which takes into account the impact of default risks on migration, both individual factors of borrowers and the economic situation in the country. Using covariates, the models made it possible to simultaneously estimate the transition rate and the probability of erroneous classifi cation of states. A multinomial logistic regression model is considered to compare the results obtained using multi-state Markov models. The proposed models are tested both on real and simulated data. Conclusion. The presented models show good predictive results with high accuracy of default estimates. The models reproduce the structure of the generated data quite well. The peculiarity of the multinomial regression model in predicting defaults is its adjustability, and Markov models estimate the probabilities of defaults. To implement the model, software R was used.

Introduction. Misseling has become a problem for commercial bank customers today. Misseling can be found both in large credit institutions and small banks. Formally, this is not a violation of the law, but, in fact, misleading of the client. In fact, there is a bank fraud when selling a banking product or service. Despite the fact that this phenomenon can be found in almost any bank to varying degrees of participation, from a scientific point of view it has not yet been sufficiently studied, although recently the Bank of Russia has made an attempt to regulate this process legislatively. Theoretical analysis. The article analyzes the concept of “misseling” and its place in the technique of unfair sales of banking products and services in commercial banks. Modern types of misseling are distinguished: unfair information, related sales, opaque pricing, sale of unsuitable products, product substitution. Empirical analysis. It was revealed that the number of misseling cases in the banking sector in the analyzed period increased, one of the reasons was a significant reduction in the key rate after its high value, low level of the population’s financial literacy. Against the background of a significant decrease in complaints related to investment life insurance, there was an increase in complaints related to cumulative life insurance, as well as the number of all other complaints on various topics. Results. The directions of improvement on encountering misselling by the Bank of Russia, commercial banks and clients are formulated and described. One of these areas was the introduction of new rules for the sale of financial products by the Bank of Russia. If the Central Bank of the Russian Federation detects a violation on the part of a commercial bank, it has the right to issue an order to the financial institution to suspend the sale of the product until the problems are eliminated. In some cases, the Bank of Russia may oblige the bank to buy back from customers all products sold in violation and make a full refund.