Management

Introduction. The article presents the results of the integrated methodology for assessing stability developed by the author, tested at the branches of the Interregional Distribution Network Company of the Center and Volga Region, which differs from the already known methods in terms of characteristics, coefficients and structure. The main indicators of the electric grid company branches’ stability are identified, taking into account the industry priorities. An assessment of 9 branches’ stability was carried out, weaknesses and strengths of their activities were identified. Theoretical analysis. The main approaches to the concept of “company sustainability” are analyzed. Despite the abundance of definitions, common features that characterize a “sustainable enterprise” can be distinguished: positive performance, long-term solvency, successful opposition to external and internal influences, integrity of the enterprise as a system and the strength of internal and external relations, and all this in the long term prospects. Empirical analysis. The methodology for assessing the stability of an electric grid company branch involves the selection of the branch stability main indicators. As a result of evaluating the company’s performance using these indicators, it is advisable to propose an integrated indicator of assessing the stability of IDNCs. Results. As a result of evaluating the branches according to the method developed by the author, one can draw a number of conclusions about the situation, strengths and weaknesses of the branches, improve the management system of the electric power industry, thereby optimizing the use of resources necessary for the sustainable development of the company and the industry as a whole.

Introduction. The problem of managing commercial real estate, in particular shopping and entertainment malls, has a high degree of uncertainty. The external source of this uncertainty is consumer preferences that affect the choice of visiting a shopping and entertainment mall. In addition, high uncertainty is associated with the complexity of forecasting the results of management and business activities. Theoretical analysis. Increasing competition and increasing territorial concentration of commercial real estate makes the information on the current and projected attendance of the property by consumers relevant for effective management of real estate and business activities on the basis of the commercial object visiting. The significance of the consequences of wrong management decisions puts forward the requirement for the development and implementation of quantitative methods of forecasting and management with high accuracy and reliability properties. The basis for forecasting is a model proposed by the authors for assessing the consumer attractiveness of commercial real estate. Еmpirical analysis. The relevance and necessity of the problem of forecasting management decisions in the field of commercial real estate management is revealed. Results. A modified Huff model which is used to predict the attendance of the commercial real estate and consumer appeal is shown. The main feature of the proposed model is its versatility in relation to the type and format of commercial real estate. The introduced convolution Q, describing the quality of the property, is a function of many variables, the set of which and the type of functional dependence is individual for each type of commercial real estate. The model example of sensitivity analysis complex evaluation to changes in the status of private criteria that can serve as the instrumental basis of the decision support system is given. Also, the model example of sensitivity analysis and search for the optimal strategy of economic entities of shopping and entertainment complexes is shown. Screen forms of multi-user support system of making individual management decisions in the software environment RDS (Research of Dynamic Systems) are given.

Introduction. The article deals with the issues of constructing forecasts in the real estate market using heterogeneous data. Establishing a “fair” price of housing is an urgent task for collateral assigning, for insurance purposes, for determining the investment projects effectiveness, etc. To solve this problem, econometric pricing models are used, which are specified for the entire surveyed population. In case of significant heterogeneity of the surveyed population, the predictions obtained from these  models may contain significant errors. Theoretical analysis. Now, there is a variety of methods and models for the analysis of heterogeneous, spatially distributed data. Population zoning or a variable structure model is used to overcome data heterogeneity. It is connected with a number of problems. An overview of the approaches that implement these methods is given, their advantages and disadvantages are listed. A new method for constructing homogeneity zones, based on the results of the global model estimates building, is proposed to improve the forecast quality. The corresponding algorithm for calculating the local correction factor is described, which makes it possible to correct the global model forecast. Empirical analysis. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in action, a forecast for the real estate price, based on the empirical data of the regional real estate market, was calculated, and an analysis of the forecast results was given. Results. The proposed new method for determining homogeneity zones based on the results of forecasts using the local correction calculation makes it possible to avoid a number of problems arising from the use of other approaches and represents an effective forecasting tool.

Introduction. The task of sectoral identification of enterprises and organizations by type of economic activity is considered, which is understood as the following – to determine its main type of activity and industry affiliation according to the balance sheet or other financial statements of an enterprise. Theoretical analysis. Sectoral identification is required in six areas identified by the authors: checking counterparties (suppliers and contractors), checking conflicting statistics, financial analysis, bankruptcy forecasting, business valuation, and determining the stage of the life cycle. Еmpirical analysis. All necessary calculations and computer modeling were made in the special computer program named The universal cognitive analytics system “Eidos”. It was revealed that according to the balance structure, reduced to a specific type, it is possible to identify the sectoral affiliation of enterprises and organizations with a certainty of 83%, and also to determine the probability of bankruptcy with a certainty of 90%. Knowing the most characteristic balance sheet items, we can identify industry ratios for business valuation. Results. The ranges of balance sheet items characteristic of five industries: information technology and telecommunications, mining, construction, agriculture and chemical production are shown, as well as characteristic ranges of balance sheet items for insolvent and financially sustainable enterprises in the construction industry. The regression equation for estimating the value of the construction enterprises’ business is given, which can be used for rapid assessment as a method of industry coefficients.