Management

Introduction. Risk management of merges and absorption possibly through impact on the system generating them. It caused need of research of properties of space of corporate integration as a complicated open system for formation of understanding about the nature of these risks, a choice of the effective instrument of management of them for the purpose of stimulation of efficiency of strategic corporate integration. The formulated purpose is achievable at the expense of a scientifically based choice of the instrument of leveling of negative consequences of influence on projects of merges and absorption of various risks. For this purpose, on the basis of research of the system properties of space of corporate integration generating its riskogennost the system of the principles of risk management of merges/absorption is created. Methods. The principles were formed on the basis of application of a method of the design of systems (system approach) focused on the solution of the problems connected with systems taking into account their interrelation and a solidarity of purpose with big (super) systems which they enter. Results. On the basis of application of this method the system of the principles of effective leveling of negative influence of risks in the conditions of occurrence of complicated system of space of corporate integration into big (super) system is created. Conclusions. The substantial description of the formulated principles taking into account system essence of an environment of the corresponding projects confirms about compliance with it the instrument of insurance. Insurance is recognized as the tool allowing to provide minimization of negative influence of risks of implementation of projects of merges and absorption on their result and at the same time to prevent possible deterioration of a condition of the social, economic and political systems connected with these projects.

Introduction. The article focuses on the reasons of the emergence of new threats and «break points» in the export control system both at regional and global levels. There is the characteristic of the given system in Russia, including the activities of the special authorities, as well as the summary description of the activities of the international export control regimes. Theoretical analysis. The author gives the positions, which were formed at the international meetings of the export control regimes, as well as at formal and informal meetings with business representatives. It is concluded the need for a more frequent interaction between export oriented public and private organizations in order to exchange the information in world economics’ sphere, including circulating the best practices in this sphere. Results. It is analyzed and classified two groups of problems in the field of export control: brokering and transit operations, intangible transfers. We study the international and Russian experience in world economics in overcoming challenges and threats to the export control system, we also make the examples. All of this brings to the conclusions of the need to develop unified procedures in the control of brokering and transit operations, control of cyberspace through a mechanism for obtaining a license.

Introduction. Possibilities of application ARIMA-models to analysis and forecasting of demographic time series were considered in the article. Foreign studies had shown that the ARIMA-models give good results for forecasting indicators such as population, birth rates and death rates, life expectancy, along with the traditional demographic methods (cohort-component approach). Research technique. Box – Jenkins methodology of the analysis and forecasting of time series, particularly with regard to demographic data: total fertility rate in Russia (1990–2014), the number of marriages by months in Russia (2005–2015), total fertility rate in France (1740–2014) and the unemployment rate in Russia (1996–2016) was used in the work. ARIMA-, ARIMA- and ARIMA-models, depending on the nature of the dynamics of the studied indicators were analyzed. Results. The analysis had shown that the estimated ARIMA-models for the total fertility rate and number of marriages were adequate and had good statistical and prognostic properties. Forecasts were built on basis of the obtained models. In the case of long series availability of properties with a long memory processes have not been identified.

Introduction. The majorityof projects implemented in the world community exceeds in duration and cost limits indicated on the planning phase, so they are not successfully executed. In our opinion, the main reason for this situation is the complexity of the optimal selection and appointment of executors to perform main project work, coupled with the lack of consideration for a number of important factors. Theoretical analysis. Theory and practice of project management and operations research proposed a number of optimization models for drafting work schedules taking into account their interrelationships, as well as the necessary resources. These models are usually referred to a class of extremely NP-hard, which explains some difficulties for their effective implementation into practice. Methodology. The basic problem of optimal selection and executors’ appointment for project work, which takes into account the topology of the network schedule, as well as the optimization criterion serving the duration of the project is researched. In researched model the limits on the total cost of all the work for the project are set, and it is determined that only one executor is involved for each job, which, if necessary, is able to perform a number of tasks. Results. During the research more significant limitations, which are implemented in the model and can significantly expand the scope and improve the efficiency of its use in practice, were developed by authors. The article provides a detailed description of the meaningful data limitations, as well as their correct formalization.